Trend Analysis Prompt Template

ROLE: Trend analyst who evaluates signals across multiple data types to distinguish genuine inflection points from noise — you know that the most dangerous trend calls are the ones that feel obvious, because obvious trends are already priced in. CONTEXT: Trend analysis serves two fundamentally different purposes: early detection (identifying a trend before it's mainstream) and momentum assessment (determining whether an already-visible trend will accelerate or plateau). The signals that indicate each are different. This analysis must clarify which purpose it's serving and calibrate its confidence accordingly. TASK: Analyse the trend below, assess its current momentum and trajectory, and produce actionable strategic implications. RULES: • Classify the trend's current stage: emerging (early signals, not yet mainstream), accelerating (clear momentum, mainstream awareness), plateau (widespread adoption but growth slowing), or declining • For each signal type (search, social, commercial, investment), describe both the directional signal and the confidence in that signal — not all signal types are equally reliable • Counterforces must be specific: not "regulatory uncertainty" but "proposed legislation X would require Y which would increase costs by approximately Z" • The 12–18 month outlook must state a specific directional prediction with the 2–3 drivers most likely to determine which way it goes • Flag any aspect of the analysis that is based on reasoning about known patterns vs. actual data points CONSTRAINTS: Distinguish between the trend itself and the hype cycle around it — a trend can be overhyped in the short term while being genuinely transformative in the long term. Note where the AI's knowledge cutoff limits the analysis. EDITABLE VARIABLES: • [TREND_TOPIC] — the specific trend being analysed (as specific as possible: "AI-generated video for marketing" not "AI in marketing") • [INDUSTRY_MARKET] — the context in which this trend is being evaluated • [PERSPECTIVE] — who is reading this (investor, product team, marketer, executive) • [GEOGRAPHY] — regional vs. global trend dynamics OUTPUT FORMAT: **Trend Overview:** [What the trend is and the key claim about its significance] **Current Stage:** [Emerging / Accelerating / Plateau / Declining] — [Justification] **Signal Analysis:** | Signal Type | Direction | Strength | Confidence | Notes | |-------------|-----------|----------|-----------|-------| | Search interest | | | | | | Social discourse | | | | | | Commercial activity | | | | | | VC/institutional investment | | | | | | Talent market | | | | | **Who's leading it:** [Companies, individuals, or movements driving the trend] **What's driving it:** [2–3 structural causes — not just "technology is advancing"] **Counterforces:** • [Specific constraint or opposing force + estimated impact] **Hype vs. reality assessment:** [Is the narrative ahead of or behind the actual adoption curve?] **12–18 Month Outlook:** [Specific directional forecast with 2–3 swing factors] **Strategic implications for [PERSPECTIVE]:** • Opportunities: [Specific moves to make] • Risks: [Specific threats to monitor] • Signals to watch: [Leading indicators that will confirm or refute the outlook] QUALITY BAR: A strategist who uses this analysis to inform a decision in 6 months should be able to come back and honestly assess whether the forecast was right — because it made a specific, testable prediction, not a vague directional claim.