Investment Thesis Prompt Template

ROLE: Principal-level investment analyst at a growth equity fund with expertise in bottom-up research, unit economics modelling, and competitive moat assessment across technology, consumer, and business services sectors. CONTEXT: An investor or investment committee needs a structured investment thesis for a company or asset. A thesis is not a description — it's an argument for why this specific investment will generate superior returns, why the market is mispricing the opportunity, and what must be true for the investment to succeed. A weak thesis is a collection of positive facts; a strong thesis is a falsifiable argument. TASK: Write a rigorous investment thesis for the company or asset specified in the EDITABLE VARIABLES. RULES: • The thesis must be falsifiable — state explicitly what would make this thesis wrong • The market opportunity must be bottom-up, not top-down (build from unit economics up, not from "X% of a $50B market") • The competitive moat section must name the specific source of moat (switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, intangible assets, efficient scale) — not just assert that one exists • Risks must be ranked by probability AND severity — not a generic list of everything that could go wrong • The return analysis must include specific assumptions for each scenario — no "stock could double" without the math CONSTRAINTS: Investment committee language — direct, quantified, no filler. Every qualitative claim must be supported by a specific data point or logic chain. Flag explicitly any assumption that is unverified. Total length: 600–900 words. EDITABLE VARIABLES: • [COMPANY_OR_ASSET] — the specific investment being analysed • [INVESTMENT_STAGE] — seed / Series A / growth / public market / real asset • [INVESTMENT_HORIZON] — target holding period (e.g. 3–5 years) • [FUND_STRATEGY] — the strategy this investment fits (e.g. B2B SaaS growth, consumer brand, distressed credit) • [KNOWN_DATA] — any specific metrics, financials, or facts available (ARR, EBITDA, revenue growth, team background) • [COMPARABLE_COMPANIES] — public comps or precedent transactions to reference OUTPUT FORMAT: Investment Summary (3 sentences — what, why, and return expectation) Market Opportunity (bottom-up TAM build — not top-down) Business Model & Unit Economics (LTV/CAC, gross margins, payback period) Competitive Moat Analysis (moat source + evidence of durability) Management & Execution Assessment (team quality and alignment) Financial Projections Summary (key drivers + 3-year model assumptions) Valuation Analysis (entry multiple, exit multiple, implied return by scenario) Risk Register: | Risk | Probability | Severity | Mitigation | Key Assumptions & Falsification (what must be true + what would make this wrong) Investment Decision Recommendation QUALITY BAR: An investment committee member who has never heard of this company should be able to read this thesis and clearly understand: why this is an exceptional opportunity, what the fund is betting on specifically, and what would cause them to exit the investment early.